Peeking Ahead - NFC West Race

As we enter the buildup to Week 4's big game, I was thinking about the NFC West race and how it's shaping up.

St. Louis - It's pretty clear the Lambs are broken and their schedule doesn't help them. They play the Cowboys, Ravens, Seachickens, Saints, Niners, Bengals and Cards on the road. Even if we're generous and say that's only another 5 losses, the Packers and/or Steelers will beat them at home. That puts them at no better than 7-9. But more likely to go 5-11.
VERDICT: OUT OF THE RACE. USE THEM IN THE ROGAN JOSH.

Arizona - This team's an enigma with the benefit of a last-place schedule. Road dates left include Lambs, Redskins, Bucs, Bengals, Seachickens, and Saints. That's probably 4 more losses. Their hardest home games left are Pittsburgh (Sunday) and Carolina (10/14). If they get lucky and split those, that puts them at 9-7. Very much a threat. Of course these clowns could implode and run off 10 straight losses and finish with a top 5 pick.
VERDICT: STILL IN IT, BUT COULD FADE FAST. ROOT FOR THE STEELERS THIS SUNDAY.

That brings us to the Niners and 'Chickens, who have to be considered the front-runners at this point. Eliminating their games against each other, each team faces the the following teams at home (Saints, Rams, Ravens) and the following on the road (Panthers, Falcons, Browns). So let's take a look at the unique games on each schedule.

Seachickens - At home against the Bears and Cardinals. On the road against the Eagles, Lambs, and Steelers. That looks like a 3-2 situation to me. Couple that with some combo of 4 wins from the list above and they're also looking at 5 losses.

Niners - At home against the Vikings, Bengals, and Bucs. On the road against the Giants and Cardinals. Although our home dates are harder, we get the same 4 wins from the common list and go 3-2 with the remainder. This also leaves us with 5 losses.

Which brings me to the ultimate point - the division is likely to come down to the two game head-to-head clash that starts Sunday at 1:15 PT. If one of the teams sweeps it, they could be looking at 11-5 and a #3 seed in the playoffs. As if there wasn't enough pressure around this game, it is an absolute MUST-WIN if Nolan & Co are serious about playing game 17 and on. Time for everyone from the towel boy to Alex Smith to step it up a notch.